With Survivor Game Changers ending tomorrow, it’s time for what’s now becoming a twice-a-year tradition: trying to guess how the Survivor jury will vote. I’m doing this with the fine people at RHAP, Inside Survivor, and True Dork Times, and we’re all competing for bragging rights.
And to brag: During Survivor Kaoh Rong, I somehow managed to win despite being bad at predictions, and during Millennials vs. Gen X, tied for second with True Dork Times’ Jeff Pitman (and his crew), and we were beaten by a tie between RHAP’s Sarah Freeman (and her crew) and Inside Survivor’s Martin Holmes.
Since we had a two-way, two-way tie last season (is that a thing?), we’ve added a tiebreaker, which attempts to predict the final vote regardless of who’s voting or receiving those votes. Here’s mine: 7-2-1
My predictions follow, but they’re more like educated guesses, and more like I have absolutely no idea.
You can read the other groups’ predictions here, which are probably much more coherent then my own:
Possible jury members
Of the final six, half will actually be on the jury, so I’ll start there, predicting how they’ll vote if they end up on the jury.
I have no rationale for most of these because I really have no rationale—I kept churning through scenarios and realizing that I don’t think we have a lot of information. A lot has happened this season but I’m not sure any of it points in any clear direction, beyond the increasing hero edit Sarah has been getting.
By the way, both Aubry and Tai were on this list one year ago, though I think they had better chances then than they do now. Alas.
- Aubry will likely vote for Cirie, then Sarah, Tai, Brad, Troyzan. Aubry’s nearly invisible edit is one of the worst parts of this season, and I expect it means she joins the jury soon-ish.
- Brad will likely vote for Sarah, then Troyzan, Tai, Cirie, Aubry.
- Cirie will likely vote for Aubry, then Sarah, Tai, Brad, Troyzan.
- Sarah will likely vote for Cirie, then Tai, Brad, Aubry, Troyzan.
- Tai will likely vote for Aubry, Cirie, Sarah, Brad, Troyzan.
- Troyzan will likely vote for Brad, then Sarah, Tai, Aubry, Cirie.
Current jury members
- Michaela will likely vote for Cirie, then Aubry, Sarah, Tai, Brad, Troyzan. Michaela and Cirie bonded, and if Cirie isn’t an option, I expect Michaela to go for whoever will give the most convincing argument, and that’s what informs this order.
- Andrea will likely vote for Aubry, then Sarah, then Cirie, Brad, Tai, Troyzan. Everyone except Aubry turned on her, and it’s likely Aubry ends up on the jury, so after that it seems like a toss-up.
- Sierra will likely vote for Sarah, then Cirie, Aubry, Tai, Brad, Troyzan. I’m assuming Sierra will eventually have figured out Sarah’s betrayal, but I also think she might still reward Sarah for that—and how Sarah managed to use it.
- Zeke will likely vote for Brad, then Tai, Sarah, Cirie, Aubry, Troyzan. I’m basing this on their in-game relationship and who voted against Zeke (Sarah, Cirie, and Aubry), though I think he’s the kind of player who will reward game play over being played.
- Debbie will vote for herself, and then when that vote is nullified because it’s against the rules, she will likely vote for Tai, then Troyzan, Sarah, Aubry, Cirie, Brad. I think Debbie may be likeliest to hold a grudge, hence this order.
- Ozzy will likely vote for Cirie, then Sarah Cirie, Aubry, Tai, Brad, Troyazan. His bond with Cirie wins, and then I have no idea.
- Hali will likely vote for Sarah, then Troyzan, Tai, Aubry, Cirie, Brad. Hali was the first member of the jury, and that is all I know about her.