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Predicting how the Survivor jury will vote

I’m not very good at predicting what will happen on reality shows, but especially Survivor. There’s something about the combination of human variables, the very powerful editing, and my own emotional desires for what I want to happen that lead me astray.

For one of many examples, this is what I wrote about Parvati’s chances of winning Survivor Micronesia: Fans vs. Favorites: “there seem to be no plausible scenarios in which Parvati wins the majority of the jury’s votes.”

Brilliant, right?

But I’m going to try anyway, along with three great people who write about Survivor in different ways—our ringleader, RHAP’s Sarah Freeman; Inside Survivor’s Martin Holmes, aka Redmond; and True Dork Times’ Jeff Pitman.

We’ve all joined together in friendly competition, Jury Jeopardy, to predict the jury’s vote. Links to their prediction pieces follow mine below, and I encourage you to check out their predictions and work.

How the Survivor Kaoh Rong jury might vote

Complicating my already complicated relationship with predictions are the number of variables going into Survivor Kaoh Rong‘s finale, including the promise of a first-time-ever twist that might defenestrate everything.

While I’m unspoiled, if there are even spoilers for this season, there are fragments of information: Probst has been hinting about a final two, but there’s also this preview, which says three Tribal Councils are coming. That would seem to confirm a final two, but there’s also the “one epic twist” part. Also, the preview also obnoxiously spoils the winner of one of the immunity challenges.

Possible jury members

Survivor Kaoh Rong, Tai Trang, Aubry Bracco

Our Survivor Kaoh Rong heroes, Tai Trang and Aubry Bracco. (Photo by CBS Entertainment)

Let’s start with who I think is the most likely member of the jury, which informs who I think the rest of the jury might vote for, i.e. not this person, followed by other scenarios.

  • Tai will likely vote for Aubry (and if she’s not at the end, then Cydney followed by Michele). Yes, I  think Tai’s out immediately, now that he’s without protection, unless you count his Michele massage, or an alliance, unless you count Mark the Chicken. Everyone has to realize he’s a threat and a wild card, willing to just hack up information, but remarkably, still quite likable. The skillful way Aubry worked him over—by convincing him he was in control when she needed his vote—means she’ll have his vote. If it’s a Michele-Cydney final two, the sting of the things they said to each other is probably fresh enough for him to give his vote to Cydney instead.
  • Aubry will likely vote for Cydney (and if she’s not at the end, then Tai, then Michele). I don’t want to see Aubry on the jury at all, but if she ends up there, Cydney has her vote. They had a strong alliance, and while the editing has been focusing more on her relationship with Tai, I think that’s because she needed him, not because they have an enduring bond. After all, he was a member of the Axis of Assholes for quite some time.
  • Cydney will likely vote for Aubry (and if she’s not at the end, then Michele, then Tai). They’re close, strategically and personally, and this is no context. I don’t expect Cydney to be on the jury, because she’s such a strong competitor in so many ways.
  • Michele will likely vote for Cydney (and if she’s not at the end, then Aubry, then Tai). I don’t think Michele’s one-episode connection with Tai will have much of an effect on her vote. Rather, her relationships this season will, and that means a solid vote for Cydney.

The current jury

Survivor, Scot Pollard, jury face

Scot Pollard’s jury face

  • Neal will likely vote for Aubry (and if she’s not at the end, then Cydney, followed by Michele). Neal’s a good guy who got screwed by the environment, and he left the game with regret about not giving his idol to Aubry. I don’t think he’ll vote for her just because she survived against the odds without his idol, though. Rather, they seem like very similar players, and I think Neal would value Aubry’s game over all the others’.
  • Nick will likely vote for Aubry (and if she’s not at the end, then I really don’t know).  I do wonder if being on the jury—and, more specifically, at Ponderosa—with Scot and Jason will somehow affect his vote. But despite being in an opposing alliance, Nick vocally respected Aubry’s game play, and I think that’s why he’d vote for her against the others.
  • Debbie will likely vote for herself, and then when that vote is disqualified, then for Tai (and if she’s not at the end, then either Michele, Cydney, or Aubry, i.e. it’s a total toss-up). Honestly, Debbie is a super wild card for me; just as I have no idea what profession she’ll profess to have mastered next, I’m not sure where her brain is. So I’m just going with Tai because he didn’t vote against her, and if he’s not at the end, then any of the other three seem like she could break their way.
  • Scot will vote for Michele (and if she’s not at the end, then Aubry followed by Cydney—or just whoever Tai is up against in a final two, if it comes to that). Based on his exit interviews and his jury face, he’s bitter enough to not give votes to the architects of his exit—especially Tai, but also, I think, Aubry. So he’ll go for the easiest vote, Michele, and then probably begrudgingly choose Aubry over Cydney, who he was overtly hostile toward. But then, who was he not hostile toward?
  • Julia will vote for Michele (and if she’s not at the end, then Aubry, then Cydney). Julia and Michele were both kind of on the periphery of the alliances, and kind of double-agents, though Julia far more openly than Michele. If Michele makes it to the end, I think Julia might reward that kind of similar game play.
  • Jason will vote for Michele (and if she’s not at the end, then Aubry followed by Cydney—or just whoever Tai is up against in a final two, if it comes to that). I expect Jason and Scot to vote identically, because they played the whole game together, and I cannot imagine that stopped at Ponderosa. I also expect some whining from their jury speeches/questions, which I’m so looking forward to that I’ll distract myself by setting fire to things in my living room and then dousing those fires with water while pouting.
  • Joe will likely vote for Aubry (and if she’s not at the end, then Cydney, followed by Michele). Joe’s strategic contribution to the game is such an empty void that trying to describe it would just suck these words into that black hole of nothingness. However, he was unfailingly loyal, which is a nice way of putting that he just did what he was told. His closest bond was with Aubry, so if she makes it to the end, she gets his vote.

Other Survivor jury vote predictions

Now that you’ve read and judged my predictions, check out the other four Survivor writers’ thoughts:

About the author

  • Andy Dehnart is the creator of reality blurred and a writer and teacher who obsessively and critically covers reality TV and unscripted entertainment, focusing on how it’s made and what it means. Learn more about Andy.

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