Survivor Cagayan will have two players remaining at the end of the game, the first time that’s happened since Survivor Tocantins in 2009. The nine previous seasons have all had final threes.
All signs have pointed to that this season, from Probst teasing the possibility in an EW interview to a recent promo that said “4 Castaways / 3 Tribal Councils.” Trish recently referred to a final two in an exit interview.
There have been some red herrings, such as cast members referencing a final two or three, but that seems to have been because a final two or three is never a sure thing. In addition, while we have just four people left now, there have been seasons where a finale began with four cast members yet had a final three, including Survivor Philippines.
Jeff Probst definitively confirmed a final two in an interview with Xfinity’s Gordon Holmes, although he says he doesn’t remember why they decided to do a final two this time:
“I don’t remember the reasoning [...] I’m still on the final three for my own personal reasons. But it comes down to numbers. If we start a season with 20, you could make a guess that it’s going to be a final three. If we start a season with 18, there’s a chance we could do a final two. It depends, sometimes on something we didn’t anticipate happening. Like, if we lost three people due to medical injuries, we might have to change and go to a final two because we’ve run out of people. I don’t think that’s ever happened. But, we’re always prepared for it.”
He also said the cast members “don’t know that yet” at this point in the game.