Reality TV Emmy nominations will, sadly, probably look very familiar

Tomorrow morning, the nominees for prime-time Emmy awards will be announced, and for the three major reality TV categories, there’s unlikely to be much change.

RealScreen asked me to look at the possible contenders, and my sad conclusion is that they’ll probably look a lot like last year’s: in fact, the same five shows have been nominated for best competition series for three years in a row. They are The Amazing Race, American Idol, Dancing with the Stars, Project Runway, and Top Chef.

As I wrote, I’d love to see Runway‘s place taken by Fox’s So You Think You Can Dance (weaker in the past few seasons but still deserving), ABC’s Shark Tank, NBC’s The Celebrity Apprentice, or CBS’ Survivor, which has been going strong lately. As to hosts, I think Heidi Klum’s nomination should go to Cat Deeley; Heidi’s a great judge, but she’s not a host, and Cat deserves recognition. The others nominated last year are probably a lock for a re-nomination.

In the non-competition category, I think A&E’s compelling Hoarders and Animal Planet’s outstanding Whale Wars deserve nominations instead of weird nominees like Antiques Roadshow. But I’m not expecting to be surprised.

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