Just like last year, everyone’s wondering if American Idol 5‘s going to tank or explode with 10 times as many viewers as it had in previous seasons. Of course, neither is likely to happen. Last year, the show “averaged 27 million viewers on Tuesdays and 26 million on Wednesdays,” according to Media Life, “[attracting] nearly 2 million more viewers than it did the previous season.”
Some expect the show to continue to improve. “Every show starts to slip once it’s in its fifth or sixth season, but I don’t see that happening with ‘Idol.’ This formula isn’t only working in the United States, it’s working worldwide,” Carat’s Shari Anne Brill told Media Life.
However, the show is facing off against the Olympics in February. But because only old people watch the games, “Media researchers such as [MediaVest’s John] Spiropoulos are predicting ‘Idol’s’ ratings these weeks will dip less than 10 percent, primarily because the Olympics attract an older audience,” Media Life reports.
By far the most priceless analysis of the show’s likely performance comes from Horizon Media’s Brad Adgate, who says that “[Fox] has been very careful not to overexpose it, which helps because the demand is greater than the supply.” Granted, FOX hasn’t tried to air three seasons of the show every year. But heck, FOX airs more than 40 hours of the show in just a few months, never mind the three-hours-per-week weeks and the episodes that are just excuses to show more commercials. Call me old fashioned, but Idol is the very definition of overexposed–and so far, that’s worked.